Storm brewing in Iran over nuclear deal, terror ties and domestic unrest

Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton (L), a strong critic of Tehran, is now Trump’s National Security Advisor

  Recent developments are indicating a tough road ahead for Iran in what is promising to be a tumultuous summer.

U.S. President Donald Trump sacked his top diplomat, Rex Tillerson, on March 13, citing specifically differences regarding the Iran nuclear deal.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo, nominated to lead the State Department, favors a firm approach confronting Tehran’s regional policy and is a major critic of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran accord is formally known.

Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, a strong critic of Tehran, is now Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Prior to this, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visited Iran on March 5, expressing concerns over Tehran’s ballistic missile program and Middle East belligerence. This portrayed the JCPOA’s fragile nature and Tehran’s failure to use Europe as a shield against the Trump administration.

Couple all this with escalating Iranian protests across the country, and the regime’s recent intention of filtering Telegram, a popular messaging app used by over 40 million people, and you have a recipe for disaster from Tehran’s perspective.  

Prelude 

Paving the path for Iran’s miseries, the Financial Action Task Force issued its latest report in February placing a June ultimatum for Tehran to input significant changes in its banking system and end financial relations with terrorist groups through nine specific procedures.

As Iran remains blacklisted in the financial market, investors are very hesitant over launching any meaningful project with the clerical regime.

Iran’s economic bankruptcy, parallel to widespread protests by people from all walks of life that continue as we speak, provide a very clear understanding about Tehran’s chief crises.

 Double impact

The groundworks of such circumstances are vivid in two very specific JCPOA weak points, from Iran’s perspective. While Europe lifted many sanctions, similar steps imposed by the U.S. remained considering how Congress disagreed with the Obama administration’s engagement with Tehran.

Obama used his executive authority to suspend nuclear sanctions, while non-nuclear sanctions imposed by the U.S., blocking America’s financial system to Iran. As a result, European banks are unable to get involved in dollar transactions with Iran.

This, again, leaves the JCPOA very fragile and allows Trump to annul the entire accord while financial & non-nuclear sanctions remain intact.

Underestimation 

Failing to comprehend the impact, Iran was boasting about Western companies lining up for business. This honeymoon ended quickly as Tehran came to understand its grave underestimation.

Former U.S. secretary of state John Kerry began receiving calls from his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif, seeking measures to set aside banking sanctions.

In March 20 16, Mohammad Nahavandian, then chief of staff of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani , travelled to London warning of unaccountable results if the JCPOA fails to resolve Tehran’s economic dilemmas. Maybe he was referring to the Iranian uprising where the poor flooded the streets and raised demands for regime change.  

Sweeping changes  

Iran’s economic predicaments continue as we speak, especially with the Obama years ending and the Trump administration executing sweeping changes in U.S. policy vis-à-vis Iran. Banks and companies across the globe, especially Europe, are showing cold feet in engaging with this regime.

Speaking at London’s Chatham House back in February, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vividly voiced his regime’s concerns, complaining how Tehran is not fully benefiting from the JCPOA and describing the atmosphere as “destructive” resulting from Washington’s “confusion” regarding the nuclear pact’s future.

Iran also miscalculated the JCPOA as a green light by the international community to deploy the Lebanese Hezbollah and dozens of other Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds Force-linked militia to not only massacre the Syrian people, but enjoy military presence in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

From 2015 onward Tehran is significantly developing its ballistic missile arsenal, providing such an inventory to the Houthis in Yemen to target Saudi Arabia. All the while, Iranian officials continue boasting about Hezbollah’s missile capabilities.

In response, the U.S. Congress is continuously adopting sanctions targeting the Iranian regime’s belligerence, especially blacklisting the IRGC.

Another expressively sweeping change that proved Iran’s calculations completely came as Europe began distancing from Tehran. Iran’s JCPOA dream story is culminating, realizing Europe will never choose business with this regime over its strategic economic relations with the U.S.

European officials went to great lengths to have Iran curb its ballistic missile program and regional meddling in the face of Trump’s threat to exit the JCPOA.

This resulted in Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials adopting strong positions against France, expressing their discontent of Europe siding with the U.S.

“If we have maintained our missile range to 2,000 kilometers, it is not due to technological limitations… we will increase our missile reach to the extent which we feel threatened,” said IRGC deputy Hossein Salami in a state TV interview on November 26. 

Ultimate concern

While international isolation creates mounting quandaries for Iran, domestic unrest has forever been Tehran’s ultimate concern. To add insult to injury, Iran’s ongoing protests and uprising is under the navigation of the opposition People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK). This coalition has for four decades been the main target of the Iranian regime’s onslaught.

Professor Ivan Sascha Sheehan in his recent article in The Hill says:

“Tehran’s violent reaction to peaceful protests demonstrates that the language of strength is the only language the regime understands. Even under current president Hassan Rouhani’s so-called ‘moderate’ leadership, the Islamic Republic continues its illicit activities to every extent it is permitted to do so.”

This is not a call to war. Quite the contrary. The world should acknowledge Iran’s current wars in Syria and Yemen, conveniently gone neglected by mainstream media and appeasement supporters.

The international community can best support the Iranian people’s uprising by crippling the regime’s entities, such as the Central Bank and IRGC. This goes analogous to recognizing the Iranian people’s organized resistance for regime change, symbolized in the PMOI/MEK.

An Iranian expression translate into “April showers bring May flowers.”

This spring is already promising a stormy summer for the Iranian regime and a year of historical developments for the Iranian people.

UN chief wants Syria ceasefire 'immediately

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres

 United NationsSecretary-General Antonio Guterres today welcomed the Security Council's demand for a 30-day ceasefire in Syria and said it must be 'immediately' implemented.
With Russia's backing, the council voted unanimously to demand the truce 'without delay' as Syrian war planes pounded the rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta.
'The secretary-general stresses his expectation that the resolution will be immediately implemented and sustained, particularly to ensure the immediate, safe, unimpeded and sustained delivery of humanitarian aid and services, the evacuation of the critically sick and wounded and the alleviation of the suffering of the Syrian people,' UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.
Guterres reminded all sides of their 'absolute obligation' to protect civilians, adding that 'efforts to combat terrorism do not supersede these obligations.
'The long-delayed vote at the council came as the death toll from seven days of bombardment of Eastern Ghouta rose to more than 500.

UN urged to act against Iran over Houthi missiles

The United Nations emblem

 The UN was urged on Saturday to take action against Iran for breaking an arms embargo by illegally supplying missiles to Houthi militias in Yemen.
The calls followed a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution late on Friday that condemned “in the strongest possible terms” last week’s Houthi ballistic missile attack targeting Al-Yamamah Royal Palace in Riyadh.
All 15 council members “expressed alarm at the stated intention of the Houthis to continue these attacks against Saudi Arabia, as well as to launch additional attacks against other states in the region.”
The council urged all UN member states to fully implement the arms embargo against Houthi militias as required by the relevant Security Council resolutions, and expressed its grave concern about continuing violations of the embargo.
It called again for all parties to engage constructively in the peace efforts of Esmail Ould Shaikh Ahmad, the UN secretary-general’s special envoy for Yemen.
The condemnation was fully merited but the Security Council should have gone farther, analysts and experts told Arab News.
“In addition to expressing grave concern, the UN should take action against Iran, the country that has provided the Houthis with the missiles that targeted Riyadh. Iran is the only country that continues to violate the arms embargo imposed by the UNSC Resolution 2216, which was issued under Chapter VII of the UN Charter,” said Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, the assistant secretary-general for political and negotiation affairs at the Gulf Cooperation Council.
“Instead of merely expressing generic concern at the continued non implementation of previous Security Council resolutions, it should have named the party that has refused so far to come back to the negotiating table. That party is the Iranian-allied Houthi militias.
“The government of Yemen has ‘engaged constructively’ with the UN special envoy, but the Houthis have failed to return to negotiations toward reaching a final and comprehensive agreement to end the conflict.”
The council’s statement “reaffirms the international community’s commitment to finding a political solution to the conflict in Yemen,” Fahad Nazer, a fellow at the National Council on US-Arab Relations, told Arab News.
“It also makes clear that the Houthis have not only alienated their fellow Yemeni citizens by trying to impose their will on the rest of Yemeni society but they have also been widely condemned by the international community.
“Their callous disregard for the safety and security of the people of Yemen and their continuing violations of international resolutions and laws by targeting civilians and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia has made them international pariahs.”

Houthi desperation

“As the Houthis lose territory and the scant support they have left in Yemen, they have attempted to broaden and further complicate the conflict by increasing their attacks against Saudi Arabia and by threatening to attack the UAE. These tactics are indicative of their desperation, as they find themselves isolated at home and abroad.”
Dr. Hamdan Al-Shehri, a political analyst and international relations scholar in Riyadh, called for serious measures to prevent the Iran-backed militias from threatening regional peace. The Security Council should take action to halt Iranian aggression, which posed a threat to many Arab countries such as Lebanon and Iraq, he said.
The international community should focus on ways of stopping Iran from supporting terrorism, Al-Shehri said. “If they don’t want to punish Iran now, at least stop these militias.”
Experts also urged the UN to ensure that Yemen’s Red Sea port of Hodeidah, which is occupied by the Houthis, was not used as a supply route for Iranian missiles and other arms.
The Saudi-led Arab Coalition in Yemen closed the port last month after a Houthi ballistic missile attack on Riyadh on Nov. 4. It later reopened to receive shipments of humanitarian aid and relief supplies, and remains operational despite last Tuesday’s further missile attack on the Saudi capital, and evidence that both missiles were supplied by Iran.
“While the UN Security Council is no doubt very concerned about the humanitarian situation in Yemen, it should take action by deploying UN staff to supervise the port of Hodeidah to make sure that it is used solely for civilian purposes and not as a conduit for Iranian weapons,” Aluwaisheg told Arab News.

Medical and food aid

Aid delivered through the ports of Hodeidah and Salif is also being misappropriated by the Houthi militias, the Coalition said on Saturday. Its spokesman, Col. Turki Al-Maliki, accused the Houthis of hampering the distribution of vaccines and stealing medical and food aid.
The theft of vaccines is particularly serious, after the International Committee of the Red Cross said there were now one million cases of cholera in Yemen and they expect another serious outbreak next March and April.
The King Salman Center for Relief and Humanitarian Aid has established more than 250 projects in Yemen at a cost of $895 million, its general supervisor, Dr. Abdullah Al-Rabeeah, said on Saturday.
The projects are operated with local partners and specialized UN agencies, and cover health, sanitation and programs for women and children.

Trump administration showcases weapons to allege Iran is increasing its role in Yemen

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley briefs reporters against a backdrop of the remains of an Iranian Qiam ballistic missile, at Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling in Washington on Dec. 14, 2017

The Trump administration said Thursday it would use what it describes as evidence of Iran’s deepening military involvement in Yemen’s civil war to secure a new international consensus for harsher action against Tehran, part of a plan to isolate its chief adversary in the Middle East.

U.S. officials have seized on a series of missile strikes by a Yemeni rebel group against Saudi Arabia as an opportunity to intensify global pressure on Iran.

At an elaborately staged presentation at a Washington military base, Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the  United Nations , showcased weaponry that she said constituted “undeniable” proof that Iran had expanded its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen as it continues to back armed groups in Lebanon, Syria and other countries.

“This evidence demonstrates a pattern of behavior in which Iran sows conflict and extremism,” ­Haley said, flanked by an array of mangled missile parts, a broken-up drone and other weaponry recovered by Persian Gulf allies of the United States.

The rare decision to publicly present materiel exploited by intelligence analysts underscores the Trump administration’s determination to galvanize new international action against Iran even as President Trumpthreatens to abandon the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated by his predecessor and other world powers.

The focus of Haley’s presentation were remnants of what officials say are two ballistic missiles manufactured in Iran, smuggled into Yemen and used by Houthi fighters to launch a series of attacks this year on targets deep within Saudi Arabia, including one of the country’s busiest civilian airports.

U.S. officials point to design features and markings — described as being from government-run defense firms — that indicate the missiles areIranian Qiam short-range ballistic missiles.

“The weapons might as well have had ‘Made in Iran’ stickers all over” them, Haley said, accusing Iran of violating U.N. Security Council resolutions.

Iran has denied the allegations. In a message on Twitter, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif compared Haley’s presentation to then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell’s 2003 allegations about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, which were later found to be false. “When I was based at the U.N., I saw this show and what it begat,” he said.

While administration officials have already privately briefed allied officials on the new information, it is unclear whether it will be enough to sway European and other U.S. allies that continue to back the nuclear deal and may be reluctant to embrace new punishments against Tehran.

Jarrett Blanc, who served as a senior official on the Iran deal under the Obama administration, said European countries did not share the United States’ “pathological fear” of Iran but are worried about Iran’s military support for groups such as the Shiite Houthis in Yemen.

“The question is, what do the Europeans need in terms of confidence that the United States is not going to blow up the [Iran deal] in order to do something on ballistic missiles?” said Blanc, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The public affairs blitz in Washington takes place as a punishing three-year-old civil war continues in Yemen. The conflict, which began in 2014 when Houthis seized control of Sanaa, the country’s capital, and drove the government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi from power, has killed thousands and triggered a major humanitarian crisis.

The United States has provided military support to Saudi Arabia, which leads a coalition of Arab states that entered the war in March 20 15 to beat back what Saudi Arabia said is an Iranian proxy force. Most analysts agree the war has driven Shiite Iran and the Houthis toward greater cooperation.

“Most people agree at this point that the Saudis are facing a legitimate security threat and that Iran is part of the problem,” said April Alley, aYemen researcher at the International Crisis Group.

“Critics would say that by continuing down this road, things will just get worse,” Alley said. The Houthi missile offensive — and its potential to spark retaliation by the Saudis or their allies — “raises the specter of escalation in other locations in the region,” she said.

The war took another chaotic turn this month with the breakdown of the wartime alliance between the Houthis and Ali Abdullah Saleh, a former president who retained significant influence in the country. After days of clashes in Sanaa, the Houthis killed Saleh, routed his forces and embarked on a withering crackdown on Saleh loyalists.

The events of the past few weeks have both emboldened the Houthis and stiffened the determination of the Saudi-led coalition to defeat them at any cost, analysts said.

“We believe the Houthis will never come to peace voluntarily,” Abdulmalik al-Mekhlafi, the foreign minister of Yemen’s Saudi-backed government, said in an interview last week. “On the contrary — after what happened in Sanaa, they have this false sense of victory.”

“This has to be broken,” he added.

The military materiel showcased Thursday also included what officials said was a drone that could be used for “kamikaze” purposes, equipment from an attack speedboat and remnants of an antitank missile, all of which were described as having been made in Iran. One piece of computer equipment had been mined to extract photos that officials said were taken at a facility of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The officials said the materiel was handed over by the governments ofSaudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and that there was no doubt about its provenance, even though in some cases U.S. officials did not have specific information on where the materiel was recovered.

Haley declined to give specifics about what actions the United Stateswould ask allies to take against Iran at the United Nations or elsewhere. The administration might also seek to use the display to increase support among congressional Republicans for taking steps that could ultimately lead to the scuttling of the nuclear deal.

In October, Trump withheld certification of the nuclear pact but did not pull the United States out of it entirely. The next certification deadline is in January.

Richard Nephew, a former U.S. government specialist on sanctions and a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, said there were few options for imposing new sanctions or other measures on Iran, at least in the United States.

“It may be pretty straightforward and easy to convince a U.S.congressperson,” Nephew said. “It is an order of magnitude more difficult to prove that to a European or Japanese official

Haley cited a report from U.N. Secretary General António Guterres that she said illustrates U.N. certainty about Iran’s behavior.